Markets optimistic about BJP’s Maha victory

On November 25, the first market day following the assembly results on November 23, the Sensex and Nifty 50 extended their gains, marking the second consecutive day of upward movement.

| Updated: 25 November, 2024 5:20 pm IST

NEW DELHI: The BJP’s sweeping victory in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections has sparked optimism in India’s investment and market landscape. With 234 out of 288 seats secured, along with significant control in the Rajya Sabha, the BJP-led coalition has reassured stakeholders about policy continuity and the government’s developmental agenda.

This decisive win is expected to drive increased government expenditure on infrastructure projects, especially in capital goods, railways, and defence. Analysts predict a resurgence in the government’s order inflow, benefiting public sector enterprises (PSUs) and engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) firms such as PNC Infra, HG Infra, and Ashoka Buildcon. Additionally, concerns about infrastructure project cancellations have been mitigated, as data shows a 16% year-over-year increase in project announcements in Maharashtra during H1FY25, totaling ₹5.9 trillion. Major infrastructure initiatives like the Mumbai Metro expansion and green energy projects highlight the government’s commitment to long-term growth.

Alongside the Maharashtra Assembly results, the NDA also won over 50% of the contested seats in the 48 by-elections held across 15 states. This resurgence at the state level comes after the BJP faced setbacks in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

On November 25, the first market day following the assembly results on November 23, the Sensex and Nifty 50 extended their gains, marking the second consecutive day of upward movement. During intra-day trading, the Sensex soared 1,356 points (1.7%) to 80,473.08, while the Nifty 50 advanced by over 444 points (1.8%) to 24,351.55. This positive momentum helped the Nifty turn positive for November, rising by 0.3%, and recovering from a 3.5% decline through November 21. Despite a tough October, when the Nifty 50 shed over 6%, it has made significant strides in recent weeks and is now up 12% year-to-date in 2024, though still more than 7% below its peak of 26,277.35 in September.

However, Maharashtra faces mounting fiscal challenges. Welfare-driven policies, such as the Ladki Bahin Yojana and increased allowances for women and farmers, have pushed the state’s fiscal deficit to an estimated 4.8% of GSDP, well above earlier projections. This strain could limit the pace of capital expenditure, diverting resources to meet social welfare commitments.

Despite these challenges, market participants remain optimistic, with expectations that strong government capex will drive gains in sectors like capital goods. The BJP’s stronger foothold in the Rajya Sabha further alleviates concerns about legislative bottlenecks, fostering confidence in the passage of key economic reforms. As the 2025 elections in Delhi and Bihar approach, the focus will remain on sustaining economic momentum and delivering on infrastructure promises.

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