NEW DELHI: China has once again upped the ante of the security dilemma and fueled security
anxiety in the Indo-Pacific region by demonstrating a possible plan of invasion and
blockage of Taiwan. As the Trump Administration sets the stage to confront China in
a more aggressive manner unlike the Biden Administration, the possibilities of
simmering tensions in the Indo Pacific region are more likely in the coming days. If
Chinaโs show off tactics against Taiwan take some serious shape in the future, it
would not only complicate USโs options but can fragment maritime peace in the Indo-
Pacific region for long, inviting more dangerous consequences for global order than
the Russia- Ukraine War. The Indo-Pacific region accounts for one-third of global
economic activity and is emerging as a key geoeconomic hub.
Flash In Indo Pacific
If China moves away from its strategic ambiguity and translates its show-off tactics to
real warfare with Taiwan, as it aims to do by 2027 as per the recent development.
Then, it would be interesting to see how the USโs security and strategic community
will respond. A possible strategic lesson can be drawn from the USโs response to
the Russia- Ukraine war, which could serve as an effective security option in case a
conflict breaks out in the Indo-Pacific region. This approach not only helps deter
China but also safeguards Taiwan from an immediate wave of Chinese attack.
The Lesson
During the Russia- Ukraine war, it was surprising that Ukraine managed to hold
ground for two years in the battlefield despite having an asymmetrical war capability
compared to the Russians. However, it now becomes an open truth that the USโs
Nixon doctrine is at play, which has backed and increased Ukraineโs survival
chances. These events are not new to the geopolitical landscape; during the Cold
War era, the world witnessed countries fighting in a proxy style to balance
asymmetries. There were countries, such as Vietnam, that had displayed exemplary
courage in asymmetrical warfare by leveraging the support of key figures to upgrade
their firepower and mitigate some of the asymmetries, thereby sustaining and
prolonging their presence on the battlefield. The same courage in fighting
asymmetrical warfare is currently evident in the Russia- Ukraine war.
Understanding Strategies and Counter-Strategies
Russia, to some extent, had employed the blitzkrieg strategy to achieve strategic
paralysis. It was aimed to strategically paralyse Ukraine by targeting their military
and strategic installation. Perhaps Russia believed that this line of action was
desirable for achieving a swift victory over Ukraine. However, little did they know that
a 7โ10-day job would now become an endless job of fighting. Ukraine has countered
the Russian offensive with a porcupine strategy backed by the West, which has so
far proved to be an effective strategy in fighting asymmetrical warfare. Russiaโs retort to this strategy was the attrition strategy- a strategy to wear and tear/exhaust the
moral and resources of Ukraine to force them to surrender or comply with Russian
demands. However, the question arises as to why Russians are still unable to
exhaust Ukrainian forces despite having expanded the area of their attrition strategy.
This demands an investigation which leads us to the following:
The Porcupine Strategy: A License to Fight Asymmetrical Warfare
The porcupine doctrine; proposed in 2008 by US Naval War College research
professor William S. Murray, is a strategy of asymmetric warfare. It focuses on
fortifying a weak stateโs defenses to exploit the enemyโs weaknesses rather than
engaging in direct combat. This ensures that the weak state can survive and sustain
itself, making it difficult for the enemy to gain the upper hand quickly. The defensive
layers surrounding the weak state or the fortifying work make it difficult for an
invading state to gain the upper hand over the weak state quickly. The fortifying work
also helps the weak state buy some time for planning and reorganizing its arsenals,
assets, and other resources for the war. A brief discussion of the working of this
strategy is discussed below:
The Working of Porcupine Strategy
According to Kings College London, three defensive layers are formed, where the
outer layer is given to the Intelligence apparatus of the weak state, backed by a
strong state, so that they can alert the defence forces. Upon receiving the alert, the
defence forces can be adequately prepared. The US Intelligence Agency (CIA) must
have already established an adequate presence to sense, report, and coordinate
with the Ukrainian Intelligence Agency so that Ukraine's defence forces are prepared
to face the Russian offensive. The second layer is fighting a guerrilla or internal war
with sophisticated support from a big state against the enemy or invading state. The
Ukraine governmentโs decision to establish the International Legion and encourage
civilian communities to support Ukraine's forces is indicative towards the intent of
setting the stage for guerrilla warfare. The guerilla method would provide logistical
and ground support to Ukraine's conventional forces. The third layer takes
advantage of what you already have or are blessed with, i.e., your geographical
setting or terrain. In the present case, Ukraine is blessed with a significant and
complicated urban terrain, and its advantage is currently being utilized by the
Ukrainian forces against the Russian forces.
The Ogaden War(1977-78); Breaking the perception
There is a common perception among many that if a strong state backs a weak
state, the weak state is more likely to prevail. However, there is an urgent need to
dispel these preconceived notions and gain a clearer understanding of the strategic
picture. The success of the porcupine strategy rests on two pillars: 1) the receptivity
or assimilation of a weak state and 2) the firm will or determination of a weak state.
Simply securing the support of bigwigs and high-tech weapons is not enough to win
the war. If that had been the case, then Somalia would have won the Ogaden War
against Ethiopia (backed by the USSR) in 1977-78, where Somalia still suffered a
humiliating defeat despite having US backing. The reason for the defeat was that the Somalians failed to assimilate, understand and operate the USโs cache of arms
supplies. Therefore, to achieve success, the weak state must go the extra mile with
the big state to balance the efforts.
The Ukrainian Response
Ukrainians are very receptive to the sophisticated weapons and systems provided to
them by the US. According to retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the U.S.
provided radar equipment that detected incoming Russian artillery fire. Hodges
expressed his surprise over the radar functioning-โradar is better than I realised he
said. The Ukrainians took it and were able to utilise it in ways that I had not known
were possible. And its not just the technical aspect, but also the tactical, in how they
employed it. Hodges said. He further said that the Ukrainian military is trying to
create drones with the technology supplied to them by the US. Ukrainians have also
demonstrated brilliance in not letting Russians dominate their airspace, using
shoulder-held Stinger missiles to take down low-flying helicopters and the S-300
surface-to-air missile system to target higher-flying aircraft. This has constrained
Russians to fire their missiles long distance from the skies over Russia or the Black
Sea rather than entering into Ukrainian air space. At the information warfare front,
Russia is also getting a tough response from Ukraine. Ever since the war began, the
Ukraine leadership was quick and smart to leverage all the important international
forum to wield anti Russian narrative which had a severe impact on the Russian
image at the abroad and world forums- ouster from SWIFT, sanctions and anti
Russian sentiments are some key repercussions that Russia is today facing. The
majority of the people across the globe have built a negative perception of Russia,
leaving a handful of people who understand Russiaโs necessity. At every front of the
war, the way the Ukrainian forces are tapping into technologies and learning them at
a fast pace shows their grit and sound mind in extreme crises. The response of
Ukrainian forces helps strengthen the second and third layers of defence, which
keep the Russians on their toes and push them back. The failure to siege and
capture Kyiv, as well as the withdrawal from Snake Island, are examples. Thus, it is
evident that Ukraineโs porcupine strategy, backed up by the West, is frustrating
Russians, humiliating them, and counter-exhausting them. Now, the same strategy is
being implemented with Taiwan; it would be interesting to see how much success
this strategy yields in the event of a Chinese invasion.
Written by Srijan Sharma
