What TV doesn't, print can't; we deliver.
What TV doesn't, print can't; we deliver.
Has it ever occurred to you what could be the US’s possible end-game in the present scenario?
Those of you that have been reading this column regularly; has it ever occurred to you what could be the US’s possible end-game in the present scenario? They have dumped diplomacy at the altar of woke media; they cannot win wars; forget about restructuring a nation as they did in the case of Germany or Japan after WWII, these days they cannot even restructure a state – especially if you consider the mess that is Iraq, Libya, or Afghanistan of today. Their tech and wealth edge is severely blunted with the rise of ASEAN or China, and even India. The fabled American Dream is dead. Their leadership has reached rock bottom and is digging further. They do not have the architects that ushered in Pax Americana, or strategists that ended the Cold War. In short, with the grand aura that was American Exceptionalism thoroughly decimated now, what could they be aiming at?
‘If I cannot win, I might as well sabotage your chances’
The establishment there can be many things and have many compulsions, especially with respect to the diktats of Wall Street and Silicon Valley combination that Vivek Ramaswamy calls Woke Inc. They may not have ace planners or exceptionally gifted minds, but they do have a measure of low cunning, and what they are up to these days, reflects the same if one steps back from the daily madness and observes from afar.
AFGHANISTAN
Let us speculate on the possible end results of a few of the current conflicts. Let us begin with Afghanistan, because in terms of ‘what could be’, this is almost a basket case. The US scooted from Afghanistan leaving it in chaos. The Taliban took over. Now, these guys are not exactly models of good governance; naturally, what is obvious that one can expect? That they would mess the country up further. And what happens when the mess gets too big to contain? It spills over. It gets interesting here because any mess that spills out of Afghanistan affects central Asia – which is a prime focus area of China, and the area of influence and concern for Russia. It also affects India and possibly, Iran too.
The US Army left US $7 billion worth of weaponry behind. Could they not have carried them, or destroyed them at least? They sure could, but they chose not to. If and when the Islamists fan out of Afghanistan, they would now have access to a large cache of weapons. Weapons they do not have the funds to buy. Weapons that are military issues – paid for already by the US government. A convenient miscalculation, don’t you think?
Sure, while a chunk of that US$7 billion comprises aircraft and choppers, can you guess the number of small weapons left behind? 300,000, as per CNN estimates. The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) is using rockets already in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. It is important to remember that China’s BRI is predicated on central Asian stability and connectivity with the rest of Eurasia, and both Russia and China have genuine security concerns in the region due to Islamist radicalism.
UKRAINE
How would the Ukraine conflict pan out? Conservatively speaking, it is scaling down to a war of attrition. Ukraine is a pawn that will be used to bleed Russia. Consult a map. Ukraine to its west and central Asia to its south – Russia then gets entangled along multiple sides. Sanctions might not have affected Russia that badly till now but it is bound to, in the long run. And Russia is primarily a single product (energy) economy. With destabilization along two sides and sanctions all around, Russia would find it increasingly difficult to manoeuvre its way forward in this game.
Interestingly enough, is the US bothered about what happens to Europe as a result of this war? Nope! Neo-Nazi Ukrainian refugees, Islamist refugees, energy crisis, unemployment, inflation – Europe is going to be left alone to fight the fire or burn in it. If Americans cared about the Europeans, they would call Russia to the negotiation table.
INDIA
A part of the answer lies in Pakistan. With Qamar Bajwa in the driving seat and the relationship with the US looking a little better, the old role that Pakistan has always had to play in bleeding India would be back under focus. Even considering the street clout that Imran Khan is demonstrating, or even if he comes to power by some rare judiciary miracle in the next election, Pakistan – fresh in the good books of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – would find it difficult to decouple from the US. No one knows whether the Pakistani establishment of tomorrow would seek to mend ties with the Taliban for a jihadi supply chain, would make do with home-grown terrorists or recruit ISKP, but everyone knows that America would extract its pound of flesh required to destabilize India from them. I am not getting into the details of why the US wants to destabilize India. Ex-LSE professor Dr Gautam Sen has an insightful essay on the same – one that allows the reader to appraise the chronology right from the chaos that was unleashed in Shaheen Bagh to the current ‘sar tan se juda’ mobocracy. To add to it, the recent US envoy on LGBTQ that has parked itself in India has resulted in the scheme of sex reassignment surgery through Ayushman Bharat.
With a rejuvenated Pakistan along our historic ‘invade-India’ frontier, and a festering domestic destabilization catalysed by the Islamist-Leftist-Media troika, a soft-state like India will falter; a long hard look at the current cluelessness of the executive and judiciary wings of the government is good enough for a cue.
That takes care of south Asia.
TAIWAN
Along the same lines, what could be the reason behind this Nancy Pelosi visit? To engage China in as many fronts as possible. With central Asia covered from Afghanistan and with little help expected from Russia now that they are in their own mess, the best-case scenario would be to open up China’s east by needling the Taiwan issue and getting Japan, Australia etc QUAD members to chip in as proxies for the US. India down south already has unsettled border issues (which could be an added advantage should India toe the US line). The Chinese economy might be faltering as we speak. There are several issues there that the CPC has put a clamp on, so there is no knowing for sure. An economic crisis augmented by orchestrated destabilization could spell a serious emergency for the dragon.
THE BOTTOMLINE
This then looks like the endgame. A complete chaos along the entire Eurasian landmass: Europe, the Middle East, central and south Asia, Russia, East Pacific corridor. If the regional players are left with no wriggle room, there could be an economic disaster of some proportions – one that could destroy the regional financial systems, their banks, and the fledgling economic or strategic alliances that are struggling to take shape.
Who would remain standing? It is an easy guess. Sitting cozy amid two great oceans and two weak neighbours, with a coast-to-coast continental stretch and an incredibly diverse terrain for any military adventurism, the US can afford to cascade destabilization all over the world and will continue doing so. Because they can. Any mouthful that you read and hear – liberal democracy, postmodern enlightenment, clean energy, or this and that equity, is just that: Propaganda.
Arindam Mukherjee is a geopolitical enthusiast and the author of JourneyDog Tales, The Puppeteer, and A Matter of Greed
Disclaimer: Views expressed above are the author’s own
