The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to return to power in Tripura, according to a survey conducted by the polling agency ‘Jan Ki Baat’.
According to the survey, conducted ahead of the assembly elections on February 16, the Manik Saha-led BJP will record a comfortable win.
The survey, which sampled 10,000 people across all districts, predicted the BJP would win 30-35 seats in the 60-member Tripura assembly. The survey also predicted that the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI (M)), along with its ally Congress, could get 13-16 seats.
The survey also gave Tipra Motha, or Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance, a total of 13-11 seats. Tipra Motha aims to create a new state called Greater Tipraland, which will include areas under the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council along with some adjacent areas.
According to the analysis of the percentage of the vote share of the BJP and other parties, based on the number of seats predicted by the poll agency, the BJP is expected to corner 39-42 per cent of the votes.
The CPI(M)-Congress alliance is expected to receive 38-41 per cent of the vote, while Tipra Motha is expected to receive 16-21 per cent and other parties 1-2 per cent.
The survey predicted the BJP winning three out of six seats in the North Tripura district. It also predicted the BJP would win four out of nine seats in the Siphaijala district, four out of seven seats in the South Tripura district, three out of six seats in the Dhalak district and two out of five seats in the Uninakoti district.
The survey also gave four out of six seats in the Khowa district, 10 out of 14 seats in the West Tripura district and three out of seven seats in the Gomati district to the ruling BJP.
The poll predicted that 60 per cent of Bengali Hindus favour the BJP coming to power. 70 per cent of Bengali Muslims in the state, however, are seen backing the CPI(M)-Congress alliance.
Expectedly, Tipra Motha will bag the maximum share of tribal votes. The party, which is led by erstwhile royal Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma, is expected to bag 75 per cent of Deb Barma’s votes.
BJP’s outreach means the party is expected to get the backing of 55 per cent of the Tripuri tribes.
The poll agency earlier successfully predicted BJP ending the 25-year reign of CPI(M) in 2018. It suggested the BJP-led coalition could gather around 35-45 seats, while it ended up winning 44 seats in the assembly election. The CPI (M) got 16 seats and Congress drew a blank.