The recent assembly elections in India have revealed a clear divide in the political preferences of the northern and southern regions of the country. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the ruling party at the centre, has maintained its dominance in the Hindi heartland, winning or retaining power in most of the states in the north. The Congress, the main opposition party, has emerged as a formidable alternative in the south, forming or supporting governments in most of the states in the region. The results highlight the contrasting socio-political landscapes of the two regions and the challenges and opportunities for the two parties in the future.
The BJP’s success in the north can be attributed to several factors, such as its delivery of welfare schemes and infrastructure projects, its strong and charismatic leadership and its appeal to the nationalist and religious sentiments of the voters. The party has also managed to overcome the anti-incumbency factor in some states, such as Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, by showcasing its achievements and addressing people’s grievances. The party has also capitalized on the perceived weakness and disunity of the opposition, especially the Congress, which has failed to offer a credible alternative to the BJP’s vision and agenda.
Even as the BJP has delivered on its promises in the Hindi heartland and is able to connect with voters but it still has not been able to make much inroads in the South. At the same time, BJP’s “Congress mukt Bharat” is turning out to be nothing but rhetoric. People in the South and non-Hindi belt are able to reconnect with Congress. They are dumping regional, provincial parties, which have largely been narrow and regressive in their approach to politics. The Congress’s revival in the South can be explained by several factors, such as its pragmatic and flexible approach to regional alliances, its responsiveness to the local issues and aspirations of local leaders, its accommodation for the linguistic and cultural diversity of the region, its projection of itself as a pro-minority party and anti-communal party, and its projection of the BJP as authoritarian and majoritarian party.
The party has capitalized on the popularity of its regional allies, such as the DMK in Tamil Nadu, the TRS in Telangana, and the JDS in Karnataka. Furthermore, it has drawn upon its governance legacy and experience, emphasizing inclusive and progressive development. The implications of the assembly election results extend to both the BJP and the Congress in the upcoming 2024 general elections. In the South, where the BJP has limited presence and faces tough competition from regional parties and the Congress, expanding its base and influence poses a significant challenge. Addressing the concerns and demands of southern states, including resource allocation, devolution of powers, protection of rights, and preservation of identity, becomes crucial for the party.
In the northern regions, the Congress confronts reclaiming its influence, which it has ceded to the BJP and regional parties. To achieve this, the party must undergo a revival in leadership, organizational strength, and communication effectiveness. Providing a distinct and cohesive national vision and agenda is imperative. Additionally, forming a cohesive opposition against the BJP, coordinating with allies on shared concerns and strategies, and challenging the BJP’s narrative on nationalism, development, and welfare are vital aspects for the party.