Social media has been abuzz with reports and speculation about the civil war in Russia ever since Wagner group chief Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin took over Russia’s southern command headquarters at Rostov on Friday evening.
Much of the analysis seems to presume that this revolt could stop Russia’s war in Ukraine, even perhaps leading to withdrawal from areas that Russia has taken over.
This may be a mistaken view. The revolt could impede, or suspend, the war effort, depending on who comes out on top. But Russia’s strategic objectives are unlikely to change.
A lot hinges on whether Prighozin is backed by outside agencies. It could well be a homegrown revolt, for Prighozin’s proximity to President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin has given him immense wealth, influence, and public standing – not to mention ambition.
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Whether or not he has foreign support at this initial stage, anyone who putatively replaces President Putin would need to show the Russian people he is not a foreign pawn. He would most likely present an ultra-patriotic image.
The war is widely perceived within Russia as being in the country’s best interests. Further, most Russians believe that their country is up against an inimical Western coalition led by NATO, not just Ukraine.
It is quite likely, therefore, that, in the event that Putin is replaced, the new regime would return to the war, albeit after a pause to regroup, mobilise and train.
Revolt targets army brass, not Putin
Prighozin’s statements have targeted the Russian army brass and Ministry of Defence over corruption, and what he describes as their incompetence in prosecuting the war.
He has cleverly left open the possibility of negotiations by drawing a distinction between areas of Ukraine that Russia has taken over and declared to be Russian territory, and the original territory of Russia.
In a recorded video, he rhetorically asked why Russia declared parts of Ukraine Russian territory if it was subsequently ready to withdraw from ‘even an inch’ of such areas. His tone seemed to suggest that the declaration may have been misguided.
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Further, he has stated that, given the way things are going, Russia runs the risk of losing some of its original territory – which he presented as a horrifying scenario.
He specifically pointed to Polish soldiers entering Russian territory, saying that this could open the floodgates. For, as he observed, there is a lot of history (of Russian aggression against East European countries like Poland).
If indeed Prighozin aims to replace Putin, the best way for him to consolidate his newfound leadership would be to fight and win a war better than Putin’s generals have.
Strategic thrust
Prighozin has shown strategic intelligence by taking over the southern command headquarters of the Russian army at Rostov at the outset.
Since Rostov is the main centre from which the war against Ukraine is being fought, it is likely to have the greatest concentration of Russian arms, ammunition, other military supplies, and combat forces not already in the field.
The war has been so hard fought that large numbers of troops and armaments from other parts of Russia have surely been moved to the Rostov headquarters over the past year and a quarter.
Given its pivotal strategic position, it is no surprise that a deputy defence minister and a top military intelligence officer were at Rostov when Prighozin walked in on them.
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He would emerge very strong if he could get these generals to join him, or even stand aside while he took over the bulk of their forces. Even if he cannot reach Moscow, control of Rostov will give Prighozin a strong grip over the military and other supplies to the war fronts. That could mean strong leverage.
Not that the capital is beyond reach. By Saturday morning, Wagner forces also appeared to have taken control of Voronezh, halfway between Rostov and Moscow. That could be a potent launchpad for an attack against the capital, about 550 kilometres away.
Chechen forces loyal to Putin rushed to his defence. According to unconfirmed reports, Putin turned to his foreign allies, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko and Kazakhstan President Tokayev. One report claimed that Tokayev refused to help, saying that whatever was happening was an internal Russian affair.
Lukashenko’s response is even more intriguing. There is speculation that he flew to Turkey, with his plane’s transponders turned off while it was over Russian airspace – and did not take Putin’s call.
Lukashenko has been Putin’s staunchest ally. In fact, in February 2022, forces were deployed from both Russia and Belarus to invade Ukraine.
Rising star of the past year
Prighozin’s clout has increased hugely over the past year owing to his dynamic leadership of the Wagner force of irregular Russian combatants, who have fought with intensity.
He recruited many of his forces from Russian prisons, pointing out that they had nothing to lose and were content even with minimal food and equipment.
They have been effective. Prighozin has claimed that his Wagner force held the partial cordon around the keenly fought Bakhmut for several weeks, while regular Russian forces could not.
Over several months, he has stepped up his campaign against the Russian army’s top brass. He now directly targets Russia’s army chief Valery Gerasimov and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Saying that the generals have mismanaged the war since the beginning, and have sent poor Russian boys to die without adequate supplies, ammunition, or training, Prighozin now calls for revenge on behalf of the soldiers.
He says most generals are corrupt, some drunken, a few cowardly, and most of them incompetent. He blames years of corruption, during which generals and the current and previous defence ministers squirrelled away large portions of military funds, for leaving Russia’s forces with scant equipment, or even training.
He stated that some of the best officers were sidelined because they refused to pay the bribes sought for even such things as their housing. He has further claimed that such upright officers have either joined his Wager force or are now willing to bring their troops to join his.
David Devadas is a journalist and security, politics and geopolitics analyst
Disclaimer: Views expressed above are the author’s own