What TV doesn't, print can't; we deliver.
What TV doesn't, print can't; we deliver.
On current reckoning, the BJP has little chance of gaining votes in the Valley, particularly in south Kashmir
The government’s move to give scheduled tribe status to ‘Pahadis’ in Jammu and Kashmir is primarily a political move. But since it may not help the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to gain a Lok Sabha seat, one infers that the ruling party is focused on the possibility of gaining a few seats in assembly elections, whenever these are held.
Meanwhile, the move is fraught with the potential for trouble. Indeed, ‘Pahadi’ is only one of the potentially problematic categories for which the government seeks to provide reservations through the bills it introduced in Parliament a couple of days ago.
Another is the ‘Paddari Tribe’. Paddar is a sub-region of the sprawling Kishtwar district, and so the category is geographical rather than sociological. There are large numbers of Hindus, including many from upper castes, and some Muslims and Buddhists.
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The rules framed may specify which communities in Padar qualify as tribal, but all those living in the region will surely seek to be included. That has already been done over the years for Ladakh and for the Gurez Valley, which is adjacent to (the north-east of) the much larger Kashmir Valley.
Ironically, the inclusion was announced just as the popular annual Machail Yatra got going in Paddar. This inclusion may possibly be resented by other portions of Kishtwar district, including the more remote Marwah and Wadwan areas.
Background
There will be far more opposition to reserving seats in education and government jobs for ‘Pahadis.’ The term is used mainly in the Poonch and Rajouri districts by persons of various mostly mutually exogamous communities other than the Gujjar and Bakerwal communities, which form distinct, largely endogamous communities.
In fact, it is the Bakerwals who clearly qualify according to the technical legal definition of a tribal community. Gujjars qualify to some extent, although many Baniyari Gujjars of the Jammu-Samba region have been relatively well-off.
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Bakerwals, Gujjars, Ladakhis and some smaller communities such as Gaddis and Sippis were given scheduled tribe status in 1992, when the insurgency was at its peak and the state was under President’s Rule.
Bakerwals, many of whom roam in the higher reaches with their herds, are of strategic importance for national security since they watch the mountains, including trekking routes, all day.
Gujjars have socially and educationally advanced significantly since 1992, particularly in the Rajouri and Poonch districts. A very large number of Gujjars from those areas have become teachers. Others are employed by the government.
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Gujjars as well as ‘Pahadis’ in those districts aver that many ‘Pahadis’ would not allow Gujjars to sit on chairs in their presence in decades past. That has changed.
Since Gujjars were included as scheduled tribes, more and more others in those two districts have adopted the term ‘Pahadi.’ Some of those who now call themselves ‘Pahadi’ also count themselves as Rajput, Brahmin, or Syed and include such dominant castes as Chib and Sudhan. One of the other groups being added to the union territory’s ST list is actually called ‘Gadda Brahmin.’
Strong opposition
Over the quarter-century after Gujjars became scheduled tribes, various governments and legal analysts examined the ‘Pahadi’ demand and found it technically untenable. However, the current central government promised it and is now implementing it.
Gujjars have always opposed it and have reacted strongly in the last few days. Demonstrations have been held even in the Kashmir Valley, including a large one in Awantipora (where there is a university) and a relatively small one even in Shopian.
These demonstrations have been allowed, though demonstrations have by and large been a strict no-no over the past four years. The slogans raised mainly targeted the commission that recommended the expansion of the ST list, but the targets could expand.
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Some activists plan a ‘Gujjar mahapanchayat’ in Jammu to chart a course for their movement. Notably, ‘Bhim Army’ chief Chandra Shekhar Aazad added his voice to the Gujjars’ opposition through a tweet. Several Gujjar activists were arrested in Srinagar on Tuesday.
Some Gujjars say they fear the agitations could escalate into violence and deep societal distress. Some even speak of ‘a Manipur in the making.’ I sincerely hope that nothing of that sort will happen and that the government will do its best to assuage fears on all sides.
Benefits unclear
One is foxed at how the benefits have been evaluated against potential costs. The tensions and potential disruptions might not be worth a few extra seats in a putative assembly for the union territory, as and when elections are held for that body.
Of course, if the objective is to install a Hindu chief minister, this might possibly help. However, it is tough to predict how ‘Pahadi’ beneficiaries will respond in case Hindutva becomes a campaign issue whenever assembly elections are held. Remember, the Congress has lost in both new states since it divided Telangana from Andhra Pradesh.
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In any case, there seems to be little sign so far that assembly elections will be held soon. Local bodies (panchayat and municipality) elections are due in autumn this year, and the country will be gearing up for Lok Sabha elections early next year.
As I noted at the outset, this move seems unlikely to give the BJP an extra seat in Parliament. For example, the recent delimitation added Rajouri and Poonch to the Anantnag, Kulgam, and Shopian districts of south Kashmir to form a new Lok Sabha constituency.
On current reckoning, the BJP has little chance of gaining votes in the Valley, particularly in south Kashmir. Even if the party were to gain many votes from those who are counted as ‘Pahadi’ in Rajouri and Poonch, Gujjars in those districts are likely to counter by voting en bloc against the BJP.
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The net gainer could be Mehbooba Mufti if she contests the seat. Her speeches, during the campaign and in Parliament, might further polarise the country, helping to consolidate a Hindu reaction (the way Asaduddin Owaisi does).
That might actually help the ruling party. However, that does not amount to an extra vote for the BJP in the next Lok Sabha. It seems that the ruling party feels secure about winning a clear majority.
David Devadas is a journalist and security, politics and geopolitics analyst
Disclaimer: Views expressed above are the author’s own
