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It is learnt that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is mulling a major cabinet reshuffle keeping in mind the 9 states that will be going to polls before the mega battle of 2024 national elections
Two very important events are lined up for the BJP wherein the ruling party will rearrange its man power by promoting, demoting and reshuffling positions and responsibilities both at the cabinet and the organisational level as part of its electoral strategy for the crucial state elections in 2023 and the grand finale of 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
It is learnt that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is mulling a major cabinet reshuffle which is going to shake its organisational structure especially in the 9 states that will be going to polls before the mega battle of 2024 national elections.
At the same time, the National Executive of the BJP set to be convened between January 16 -17 will also focus on the upcoming elections. The two events are inter-related as any change in one, will also impact cabinet reshuffle. It is anticipated that cabinet reshuffle will happen before the National Executive meet.
Education and tourism are two key departments that have not performed to their capacity. The Prime Minister is said to be unhappy with the performance of these departments. Some ministers who have complained of additional load may be relieved of some ministries.
There are strong indications of some ministers being dropped from the union cabinet. In 2021, 30 ministers were asked to put in their papers that included Prakash Javadekar, Dr Harshvardhan and Ravi Shankar Prasad. In the impending reshuffle. Some junior ministers may also get elevation to the cabinet rank.
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) Government is likely to have ministers from Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinder led Shiv Sena. One cabinet rank and one minister of state will be from the Shinde group. It remains to be seen whether NDA will allow the entry of Chandrababu Naidu led Telugu Desam Party. It appears quite a possibility as BJP aims to win Andhra Pradesh Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 national elections.
Young Chirag Paswan who had fallen from favours is back in the fold. Centre on Wednesday upgraded his security to Z category after central agencies flagged his present security cover. Paswan has been an ideal foil to Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar. BJP recently one two crucial assembly by-polls in Bihar with the support of Chirag Paswan led Lok Jan Shakti Party. He has been getting a lot of traction in the Bihar politics that is witnessing an upheaval after Nitish Kumar parted ways with the NDA.
Interestingly, for the BJP, it is 2023 that is the major challenge not 2024. Nine states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Karnataka, Meghalaya, Tripura, Nagaland and Mizoram will go for polls in 2023. Tripura where BJP had snatched power from the Left parties in 2018, is slated to vote in the first half of the current year Along with other north eastern states Meghalaya, Mizoram and Nagaland. Central leadership had replaced Biplab Kumar Deb and Dr Manik Saha took over the reins of the state. Winning back Tripura will have bearing on the 42 Lok Sabha seats of West Bengal. Mamata Banerjee led Trinamool Congress has made serious attempts to breach BJP’s citadel in Tripura but has not succeeded so far.
Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh with 6 7 Lok Sabha seats will be going to the polls in the later half of 2023. BJP has put all the resources at its command to win these three crucial states that would set the template for the 2024 general elections. Wrestling power from the Congress in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and from K Chandrasekhar Rao in Telangana will be the litmus test for the BJP as that would increase its chances of coming back to power in 2024.
Karnataka is another important southern state with 28 Lok Sabha seats. Term of current Karnataka Assembly ends in April 2024. Election commission may hold Karnataka Assembly polls in December 2023 as holding in the first quarter of 2024 will overburden the election commission of India’s preparations for the polls in 2024.
Meanwhile, it is very likely that the national executive will endorse an extension in the BJP’s national president J P Nadda’s tenure to maintain the status quo before the elections.
However, there is another view in the party too. It is possible that Gujarat BJP president CR Patil, one of the architects of landslide victory in Gujarat, replaces Nadda, if the BJP decides to go for a total makeover before the big battle. Party insiders think that if Nadda is not given an extension as the BJP president, he may be included in the union cabinet. Though it looks unlikely, BJP never misses a chance to surprise everyone with unforeseen decisions.
There is another possibility of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan being made the BJP president. If it really happens, Nadda will get the key education department and set the tone for 2024 Lok Sabha polls by bringing in significant changes in the books and syllabus especially of secondary education.
We may see young and energetic ministers getting into the union cabinet. Some ministers may be drafted for party work. This is a way out to drop senior ministers from the cabinet and include them in the organisation. Some seven to eight ministers may face the axe as they are said to have failed to meet the bar set by the Prime Minister Modi.
Ministers are said to have been provided with 10-point proforma for providing the amount of public welfare related works done of their ministries. Central schemes aimed at the poor including toilets, houses, health, financial support to poor and marginal farmers, free ration, LPG electricity, rural and urban connectivity are the key functional areas.
BJP under Prime Minister Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah is making sure that everything is in place for the battle ahead. Changes in the central government and the organisation are aimed at finetuning its election machinery without any hiccups. We may see perceptible changes in the days to come.
