MCD poll results: Why AAP has more reasons to worry about than BJP

While AAP may rejoice in current victory it scored over BJP ending its 15 year uninterrupted reign in the civic body, the devil lies in the details. AAP performed poorly in the constituencies of its main leaders like Manish Sisodia, Gopal Rai, Kailash Gehlot and Satyendar Jain.

| Updated: 07 December, 2022 5:32 pm IST

Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has wrested control of Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) from Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal led AAP managed to beat BJP in the second attempt. AAP’s victory is not that big as the AAP Convenor Kejriwal and his partymen were claiming during the campaigning. However, they can thump their chests for defeating BJP in Delhi that could not hold its 15 years uninterrupted reign in the MCD.

Results of MCD elections -2022 are quite an eye opener. It is not a sweep as AAP supremo Kejriwal was claiming. AAP winning 134 wards out of 250 seats can be seen as ratification of Kejriwal’s Free Bijlee-Paani doles and claims on a better health and education model. BJP can claim that despite the anti-incumbency of 15 years rule, it won 104 seats and increased its vote share by 1 percent.

However, the BJP and its cadres just could not bring its voters to the polling booth which reflected in the overall turnout of the voters. Only 50.5 percent of people voted in the national capital in the municipal polls that directly impacted their lives. Call it ‘voters fatigue’ or inability of the political parties to convince them to vote, the results should jolt its Delhi leadership from slumber.

The minus point of this AAP win in MCD polls should make Kejriwal and his people sit up and take notice. AAP had polled 53.8 per cent votes in 2020 Assembly polls and won 62 seats while BJP had won 8 seats with a vote share of 38-7 per cent. As per the data available with the state election commission, AAP has polled 42.3 per cent votes and registered 11 percent drop as compared to its 2020 performance in Delhi Assembly elections whereas BJP increased its vote share by a percent in comparison to its 2020 assembly performance. This should be no mean achievement for the BJP if we take the anti-incumbency factor of 15 years of uninterrupted rule in MCD.

Despite being out of power in Delhi assembly since 1998, BJP has not lost its core voters base whereas Congress that had ruled Delhi from 1998 to 2013 under Sheila Dikshit had been reduced to single digit in total vote share. Comparisons are always odious if we take the performance to Congress and CPM led front in West Bengal. Congress has been shedding its vote share ever since it lost Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in 1989 elections. CPM led left front ruled West Bengal from 1977 to 2011 for 34 years and in 2021 it did not win a single seat.

BJP’s survival in Delhi’s poll arena is a case study though AAP can claim the high moral ground that it has defeated the World’s largest party in MCD polls. Results of the MCD poll should be a cause of worry for Kejriwal and his party. AAP lost in the assembly segments of Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia, Transport Minister Kailash Gehlot, Labour and Environment Goal Rai and jailed minister Satyendar Jain.

Exit polls had predicted a landslide for AAP but results were not on the same page. It means voters did not reveal who they were voting for. Final tally of MCD polls: AAP:134 wards, BJP: 104, Congress: 09 and Others-03 speaks for itself.

While AAP needs to study the abysmal performance of its candidates in the constituencies of its ministers and the Deputy CM, the 7 Members of Parliament (MPs) of the BJP should look within.

Barring cricketer turned politicians Gautam Gambhir who managed to win 61 per cent wards (22/36) in East Delhi Lok Sabha constituency and former union minister Dr Harshvardhan managed to somehow salvage his reputation by winning 51 percent wards (16/30), BJP won 48 per cent wards (20/41) in North east Lok Sabha seat of Manoj Tiwari.

BJP suffered heavy losses in South and West Delhi Lok Sabha seats represented by two Jat leaders Ramesh Bidhuri and Parvesh Verma respectively. AAP managed to beat BJP by winning big in these two parliamentary constituencies. BJP could win just 34 per cent wards (13/37) in South Delhi while its fared badly in West Delhi where it could win only 34 percent wards (13/34) and in North West Lok Sabha seat represented by Punjabi singer Hansraj Hans, it won just 32 percent wards (14/43). BJP took the biggest hit in the upmarket New Delhi Lok Sabha seat represented by union minister Meenakshi Lekhi. BJP won a meagre 20 percent wards (5/25) and it’s reflected upon the final outcome of MCD elections 2022.

BJP can claim solace that it gave a good fight to AAP and managed to increase its vote share and also crossed the 100-seat mark which even exit polls have failed to predict.

If we analyse the results of MCD elections, BJP has nothing to lose as its vote share is intact and will help the party in defending all its 7 Lok Sabha seats in 2024 elections. Results should worry AAP more as it has lost its 11 percent vote share in just two years. Congress can take the high moral ground that BJP did not win but its leadership should introspect for its poor performance despite Rahul Gandhi’s much hyped Bharat Jodo Yatra. Congress lost 11%of its vote share in 2022 as compared to 22 percent in 2017