NEW DELHI: In a recent analysis, Lord Meghnad Desai, renowned economist and Non-Executive Director at Elara Capital PLC, shared his insights into the ongoing Ukraine conflict, highlighting the increasing global dimensions of the war. According to Desai, U.S former President Joe Biden’s recent decision to authorize long-range missions for Ukraine has escalated the stakes of the war, transforming it into a larger geopolitical crisis.
Desai emphasized the significant role of NATO, especially with the UK’s announcement to support Ukraine in launching attacks on Russian territory. This move has prompted Russia to modify its Nuclear Weapons Doctrine, reflecting the growing tensions between the West and Russia. With NATO nations like France ready to assist Ukraine, but Germany still cautious, the atmosphere in Europe remains divided. The situation is further complicated by the looming concerns of Poland, which fears being the next target of Russian aggression.
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The war, now entering its third year since Russia’s first incursion into Ukraine, is drawing comparisons to the early stages of World War II, according to UK Parliament members. Desai noted that the belligerence within the UK Parliament, particularly in the House of Lords, reflects a cross-party consensus to support Ukraine in the face of Russia’s aggression, invoking the historical spirit of Winston Churchill and his wartime leadership.
However, Desai pointed out the complexities surrounding NATO’s actions, suggesting that its support for Ukraine risks revisiting the mistakes of the 1930s, when European powers underestimated the rise of militaristic regimes. He also reminded that the promise made to Russia post-Cold War to not expand NATO’s influence further eastward was broken, which has contributed to Russia’s current alarm over Ukraine’s potential NATO membership.
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Desai further argued that the global political landscape has evolved significantly, with rising powers like the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) creating new centres of influence. In light of this, he called for India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has visited both Russia and Ukraine, to play a mediatory role in seeking a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
As the war continues with no clear end in sight, Desai warned that the world may be heading into a new era of global conflict, reminiscent of the First World War, yet driven by modern geopolitical dynamics.