What TV doesn't, print can't; we deliver.
What TV doesn't, print can't; we deliver.
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas began on 7th October 2023 when Hamas surprised Israeli intelligence and defence agencies by orchestrating the biggest-ever attack on Israel in decades. It resembled the 1973 Yom Kippur War when Israel was attacked similarly, on the Jewish holiday and this time on Sabbath Day. In the aftermath of the attack by Hamas, Israel, among other measures to counter the threat, launched ground operations against Hamas haven in the territory of Gaza on 27th October. The conflict between Israel and the non-state armed militant group Hamas has deep-rooted fertile religious and ideological ground. It goes way back to 1948 with the formation of Israel.
India has remained at the forefront of condemning the ‘terror attack’ and made clear its support for Israel. India has shown its conformity to the two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine cause and reiterated the importance of a negotiation-based order acceptable to both sides. India has a profound interest in the region vital for its national interest. The ongoing conflict has certain concerns for India like trade and investment, remittances, diaspora, technology-related innovation, energy security, and so on. The article in the following sections analyses these issue areas amid the crisis going on.
The diverse nature of economic engagement between India and Israel includes not only trade in merchandise but also close association in the fields of innovation, technology, water technologies, agriculture, and space & science. The total amount of bilateral trade hovers around 10 billion USD, and investment from 2020-2023 from both sides remains around 700 million USD. The volume of trade and investment is not to the scale that can have any serious impact on the economic stability of India yet the diverse nature of cooperation has to be taken into account. Apart from these, the next major concern is the India-Middle East-European Economic Corridor.
The India-Middle East-European Economic Corridor (IMEC) was announced during the G20 summit in New Delhi. The corridor includes important ports of India like Jawaharlal Nehru port, Kandla, Mundra, and so on, and connects these to UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel to Greece connecting India and South Asia to Europe. It will include ship-rail transit networks and road transport routes as well.
Recently in a media briefing, the Finance Minister of India termed it a ‘win-win situation’ because it will give a boost to the economy in a holistic manner. At the same time, it will be a step in attaining the goal of energy security since it also has a hydrogen gas pipeline plan, electricity cables, and high-speed data cables among others. The corridor also has strategic value because it has been seen as an alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of China. if the war escalates in bringing in other states of the region it can jeopardise the implementation of IMEC.
India is a net importer of crude oil, petroleum, and LNG of which a larger chunk is imported from states located in this region. The top four countries from where India imports crude oil are located in West Asia viz. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait. The same for Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is Qatar 42%, USA, UAE, and Nigeria. After the major cut in the production of crude oil announced by Russia and Saudi Arabia, there has been a rise in the price of crude oil. According to several economists, for every rise of 10 USD in the price of crude oil, permanently, there is an increase of .5% in India’s Current Account Deficit (CAD). Rising CAD can cause issues with the balance of payment and can be counterproductive.
Special mention should be made of Qatar which is the largest supplier of LNG to India 42% and also hosts a large number of Indian diaspora which is around .85 million. In the recent past, Qatar has shown a different side. The Qatari Government was the first to ask for a ‘public apology’ from the government of India after the remarks were made by an Indian politician who was a member of the ruling coalition. Although the issue was handled maturely by the Government of India the suit was followed by Kuwait, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and OIC making unfavourable comments on the domestic politics of India. Such steps can hurt the Indian diaspora in West Asia which may hurt remittances. The recent judgment of the Court of First Instance of Qatar in the case involving 8 Indian employees of Al Dahra company wherein they were awarded the death penalty shows Qatar’s hostility.
Qatar has held the overseas political office of Hamas since 2012. In the context of the proximity between Qatar and Hamas on religious and ideological grounds, it will be a tough road ahead for Indian diplomacy.
India formally recognised Israel in 1950 and diplomatic relations were established only in 1992. The maiden visit of the Prime Minister of India to Israel in 2017 further strengthened the ties between the two.
There are l instances that brought both of these countries close. During the 1999 Kargil war, Israel supported India with precision-guided munitions which were vital for India’s victory against the aggression. The assistance provided by Israel also became crucial in the context of the sanctions that India was facing due to the peaceful nuclear explosion at Pokhran during the same period. In the terror attacks of 26/11 on Mumbai apart from the casualties of the Indian civilians four Israeli civilians were also killed. Israel has time and again mentioned its commitment to zero tolerance towards terrorism. Both India and Israel are victims of terrorism which also brings them close.
In 1974 India became the first non-Arab country to recognise the Palestine Liberation Organisation as the sole representative of the Palestinian people. India has maintained its moral and tactical position concerning the Israel-Palestine crisis. India in December 2022 abstained from voting on a UN resolution that sought the opinion of the International Court of Justice on the ‘legal consequence’ of annexation of Palestinian territories. But at the same time, it also voted against the resolution of the US in the UN which asked countries to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Again in 2018, India voted in favour of the resolution on the ‘Protection of the Palestinian Civilian Population’ against the use of “indiscriminate force” by the Israeli forces. It should be noted that Hamas doesn’t represent Palestine and in no way an attack on Hamas can be seen as an attack on Palestinians.
India to further its national interest has chosen to maintain a balance between the Arabic states on one hand and Israel on the other. If the war escalates it will be challenging for India to maintain the same balance for the reasons mentioned above. Self-help using internal balancing or external balancing, augmented with soft power is the way forward. The combination of these strategies has to be carefully utilised by India to facilitate its manoeuvre vis a vis the impacts of the ongoing crisis between Israel and Hamas.
Dr. Vikash Kumar Thakur is a research scholar from the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University and has a specialisation in International Relations
