What TV doesn't, print can't; we deliver.
What TV doesn't, print can't; we deliver.
It is in India’s interest to prevent Pakistan from becoming an outright Chinese colony
A couple of Pakistan’s most prominent mover-and-shaker journalists have stated that the stage has been set for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit Pakistan and sign off on a peace deal on April 9, 2021. Both say that Pakistan’s then-prime minister, Imran Khan, refused at the last minute.
The point is in the context – of both the reported peace deal, and it is revealed now. In 2020-21, India was threatened by China’s incursions and its infrastructure development and mobilisation along India’s eastern borders.
I have warned (publicly, since 2011) that China would join forces with Pakistan to pose a potent triad of security threats to India. The prospect of China-Pakistan jointmanship seemed very real last year.
The US was getting set to exit Afghanistan – and seemed less likely to be involved with south Asia. Conversely, Pakistan seemed set to gain its armies’ long-sought ‘strategic depth’ through control of Afghanistan. That could potentially have made it feel far more robust to be belligerent towards India.
Moreover, Khan was building closer links with China, and Russia. In that context, the strategic scenario seemed forbidding for India.
Revamped context
Less than two years later, the context has changed quite radically. The economy is in more of a tailspin than before; food riots have been reported in some parts of Pakistan.
Its army has had to deploy on its western borders after some pretty serious attacks from Afghanistan. There is increased rebellion in Balochistan. And Pakistan is in the throes of a crippling debt crisis, from which China is unwilling to bail it out.
Perhaps China is waiting and watching for Pakistan to become such a basket case that it falls into its lap. I mean a scenario in which Pakistan might be forced to accept much greater Chinese control over its economy, its infrastructure, possibly its security, and even perhaps its state systems.
Already, there was a report that China wanted to post four officials to monitor Pakistan’s finance ministry for 10 years if it loaned an additional $6 bn – at a whopping 9.6 per cent interest.
No wonder several, mainly Western, powers, including multilateral ones, are gathered right now in Geneva to put together a package to bail Pakistan out of a looming default.
It seems that the bailout will be secured – but only just; Pakistan’s economic scenario remains grim. So do the security scenario on its northwest front, and its internal rebellions. National politics is in disarray: the coalition in power is uninspiring, and the ousted Imran Khan retains huge ground support.
Even that longstanding bastion of the Pakistani state, the army, was riven over the recent succession of the current army chief. The chief contender retired instead of accepting the appointment of his rival.
China versus South Asia
This is the revamped context in which those articles revealing the peace moves of 20-odd months ago have been published. Could they be feelers for reviving peace talks with India? It would certainly help Pakistan’s army to be able to concentrate on the Afghan front if they didn’t have to worry about India.
It’s tragicomic how India and Pakistan have alternated with peace overtures – mostly behind-the-scenes – over the past eight years of PM Modi’s time in office.
The only time they seemed to be working in tandem was during the three months the national security advisors spent preparing for PM Modi’s supposedly spur-of-the-moment visit to attend the wedding of the granddaughter of the then prime minister, Nawaz Sharif.
But nothing came of even that attempt at peacemaking. A terror attack at Pathankot followed a week later, and peace became passe again.
The question is: how should India play its cards now? The country should keep back channels open, but totally secret and deniable. In such talks, India should persuade Pakistan to join it in pulling south Asian countries into closer partnership. Conversely, that means that Pakistan must influence China to keep off south Asia, including India’s borders.
Of course, that’s a lot to ask. But that must be the bottom line. That is what India needs in order to be secure enough to deal with outstanding issues with its neighbours and to work with them to improve economic, cultural, security, and political ties.
South Asian cooperation could help ease tensions over borders on both Pakistan’s west and east. If Pakistan’s security strategists understand the potential of the challenge they face from a resurgent Afghanistan, they should see the logic of cooperating.
How they persuade China to back off is up to them. Of course, the West will have to continue to underwrite Pakistan’s debts to the extent possible. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s policymakers must understand that China will never give them anything, only use its leverage to take over their physical infrastructure, and economy.
China could take over a failing Pakistan
There is, of course, always the option of watching and waiting for Pakistan to implode. A potentially autonomous Balochistan may opt for closer ties with India, but it would be foolish to underestimate the Islamism there.
More importantly, a possible breakup of Pakistan would bring an expanded Afghanistan – ruled more powerfully by a triumphant Taliban – closer to India’s borders.
On the other hand, only fools (and, sadly, many lurks) would ignore the fact that Pakistan not only has nuclear weapons but has developed tactical nukes – ones it would consider using. Especially if Russia uses tactical nukes as the war in Ukraine progresses, Pakistan could use them too.
Their target may be Afghanistan, but that would set off a potential free-for-all and unpredictable chaos in the region. The Taliban are unlikely to surrender.
More likely, China or the US, or both, would seek to take things in hand. Since the US will not risk body bags, that could result in an increased Chinese presence, including more boots on the ground. Ultimately, it is in India’s interest to prevent Pakistan from becoming an outright Chinese colony.
David Devadas is a journalist and security, politics and geopolitics analyst.
Disclaimer: Views expressed above are the author’s own
