How does US2024 look with Vivek Ramaswamy gone

While Vivek sure helped reduce the neocon-favourite Nikki Haley’s chances and put Trump ahead in the Republican race, there is no saying how much of a change would be cascaded during this round if Trump wins.

| Updated: 24 January, 2024 4:02 pm IST

TNI Illustration by Aman Rawat

With Vivek Ramaswamy finally opting out of the 2024 US Presidential race, the thin slice of hope for American redemption looks like in tatters.

Back in March last year, I had expressed the same concern while speaking about Vivek to the Moscow-based TV channel RT – that the man is too intelligent to be allowed to be the President of a country that is completely under the control of Wall Street and Silicon Valley influenced bureaucratic deep-state. And these last few days of surfing through the different American media outlets was an experience in the same. CNN, NYT, NBC, USA Today, etc houses seemed determined to not mention Vivek even once, or as minimally as possible, and make sure to criticize him, his origins, or his intent during those fleeting mentions.

Here was a man: the son of a non-white immigrant duo, who was smart, one of the most well-articulated men in the circuit today, highly educated, extremely intelligent and a very successful entrepreneur – a prototypical confirmation of the fabled American Dream. Small surprise he had to be stopped. I had expressed the same apprehension during my March ’23 interview – that the voters would consider him too bright to be true, while the establishment already understands that he is trouble (the funny thing is that even this insignificant little clip was banned by YouTube immediately after I had uploaded it).

While Vivek sure helped reduce the neocon-favourite Nikki Haley’s chances and put Trump ahead in the Republican race, there is no saying how much of a change would be cascaded during this round if Trump wins. The Trump era remains tainted with disastrous domestic economic health that resulted from Covid mismanagement. With the mainstream media’s constant vilification of him and every moment of his presidency, he failed to bridge the widening gap between woke and traditional Americans. A fractured civil society apart, he failed to control the national debt, reduce the trade deficit with China, or strengthen the American manufacturing sector. And when he left, the country had fewer jobs than when he had become the President.

Though he was fairly successful internationally during his last stint – possibly more than any US President in recent memory, Trump maintained a hawkish outlook towards Iran. The present Israel-Hamas conflict, which involves a large number of players both below and above the radar (including Iran, as well as a large number of warmongering neocons from among the Republicans, and institutions like UANI that have members across the aisle), stands a chance of combining with Trump’s overfriendliness with Israel, and might spiral out of control during his second innings. If it does, it has the potential to render his ‘workable’ relationship with Putin useless in establishing some semblance of balance in West Asia. And while he might secure some consolation for Europe by drawing curtains on the Ukraine theatre, there are emerging tensions – an entity of unknown scale as of now – in the Sahel region of Africa, that have put America on a collision path with Russia.

First-timer Trump was an element of unknown value. His value now ascertained he has the war-hawk Republicans from his camp, the woke-Democrat lobby from across, and their combined might consisting of media-academia-intelligence-bureaucracy working against him already. It would be a miracle if he wins.

This is not to say that Biden (or some other puppet that the Democrats favour) continuing as the US President would be a good thing. Joe Biden – because he is the only visible face – is the reason why the USA has had an ignominious descent from its Trump-era international triumphs. An embarrassing escape from Afghanistan, a humiliating defeat looming large in Ukraine, the orchestrated destruction of the European economy, useless sanctions against Russia including stealing of their sovereign assets that have hastened the onset of a multipolar world – it is a long list and a subject for a whole essay. And that would have still made some sense had the common American witnessed their income and living standards soaring high. Michelle Cordero notes: “Inflation rates hit a 40-year high last week, coming in at 9.1%. The cost of everyday staples also increased. The price of eggs went up 33.1%, meat 8.2%, gasoline 59.9%, used cars 7.1% and air travel 34.1%. This is all in addition to supply shortages. Yet as the economy is flashing huge red warning signs, President Joe Biden and his administration are telling us something different.”

With their income and savings being blown away as a result of 40-year high inflation, with illegal immigrants pouring in by their thousands (a vote-bank tactic employed by the Democrats), and with the disappearance of affordable housing/hospital, it is doubtful today, how optimistic the average American is about the prospect of a return of Joe Biden. And yet, Biden, or some other Democrat, stands a chance of winning 2024. Trump emerging as the frontrunner within the Republican tent just ensured that all the institutions across both sides of the aisle would put their entire might to try and see that he loses the election. Expect the ghost of ‘Russian interference’ to get worse and louder, if only in a different avatar.

How might that impact the rest of the world?

International conflicts would increase: If the Democrats win, the neocon lobby would continue on its mission to expand the war theatres through their proxies (from Ukraine and West Asia to Sahel and Afghanistan) trying to drain Russia.

Efforts to weaken China would be stalled: A Democrat win will be a better deal for China, given the fact that the CPC enjoys fair control over most of the blue politicians. While sporadic events on the ground might indicate to the contrary now and then, the larger contour of this relationship would remain unchanged.

CARs and South Asia would be needled: The Democrats would want to resume their efforts to destabilize the CAR states (to keep Russia engaged, if not China directly), and the Indian subcontinent. Incidentally, both of these can be achieved through Islamist terrorism – hence note the resurgence of ISKP, the thaw in US-Pak relations, and the quickly changing role of the Pak Army.

In short, with a Democrat win, the US managerial-bureaucratic apparatus (as Vivek calls it) will continue to focus on keeping Eurasia divided, conflicted and poor, as they keep selling weapons and/or effect economic restructuring in a manner that funnels billions in their kitty.

With a Donald Trump victory, they might just have to let Europe off their list; grudgingly. For the rest, Trump would find it quite insurmountable a hill of mess that Joe Biden and his policymakers have created over the last few years.

Arindam Mukherjee is a geopolitical analyst and the author of JourneyDog Tales, The Puppeteer, and A Matter of Greed.