By Prakhar Agarwal, Kartik Solanki, Palak Shah of Elara Global Research
NEW DELHI: HDFC Bank’s latest quarterly results reveal a bank amid a delicate balancing act, managing multiple financial levers while navigating the complexities of its ongoing merger.
While the earnings exceeded estimates, mainly due to lower credit costs, the key takeaway is that the bank is undergoing an elongated period of balance sheet realignment, characterized by slower loan growth and careful management of its liquidity and capital adequacy ratios.
This strategic positioning signals HDFC Bank’s cautious approach to the current market environment but may also imply near-term challenges that could weigh on investor sentiment.
Growth vs. Liquidity: A Conundrum
One of the most significant developments in the bank’s Q2 performance was the modest loan growth of 7% year-on-year, significantly slower than its historical averages.
This deceleration can be attributed to HDFC Bank’s deliberate decision to adjust its Credit-Deposit (CD) ratio, which dropped by a sharp 375 basis points quarter-on-quarter to just under 100%.
On the one hand, this strategy signals prudence in managing liquidity; on the other hand, it creates a drag on growth, which has long been a key driver of HDFC Bank’s premium valuation.
The balance between growth, Net Interest Margins (NIM), and liquidity management (in the form of the CD ratio and Liquidity Coverage Ratio, or LCR) is a delicate one.
The bank’s rising LCR, now at 128%, suggests it is prioritizing safety and liquidity buffers over rapid expansion—a reasonable stance in an uncertain economic environment.
However, this also means that the bank will experience slower growth for the foreseeable future, a reality that investors must grapple with as the bank undergoes this realignment.
NIM Stability and Earnings Pressure
HDFC Bank reported stable NIM quarter-on-quarter, but this stability masks the underlying pressure that the bank is likely to face if it continues to prioritize liquidity.
With the CD ratio near 100%, the bank is sacrificing some NIM upside, and further tightening of liquidity could place additional strain on its margins. Moreover, with limited room to cut operational expenses and already low credit costs, the bank’s earnings may come under pressure in the near term.
The realignment HDFC Bank is undergoing is akin to a company fortifying its foundation before resuming its growth trajectory.
Yet, this period of recalibration could be prolonged, and earnings may remain subdued, as the bank juggles multiple financial objectives. Investors should therefore temper their expectations of a quick rebound in growth or profitability, particularly in light of the macroeconomic uncertainties.
Valuation Concerns and Future Prospects
The market’s response to HDFC Bank’s results has been lukewarm, and rightfully so. A key concern for investors is the potential dislocation between the bank’s realignment efforts and its valuation multiples.
HDFC Bank has historically commanded a premium due to its consistent growth and robust asset quality. However, in the absence of a clear growth trajectory, this premium could come under pressure.
That said, HDFC Bank’s focus on maintaining strong asset quality is commendable, particularly in a heightened security environment.
The bank’s conservative approach to risk management positions it well for the future, but the near-term outlook remains clouded by the uncertainties surrounding the balance sheet realignment.
Investors are left to ponder whether the bank’s prudent positioning today will lead to superior returns in the long run or whether the protracted realignment will weigh down performance for longer than anticipated.
Accumulate for the Long Haul
Despite the near-term challenges, we maintain an Accumulate rating with a revised target price of INR 1,898, reflecting our confidence in HDFC Bank’s ability to emerge stronger from this transition.
The bank’s strategy of fortifying its balance sheet in preparation for the next growth cycle is prudent, even if it comes at the cost of slower growth in the near term. While we may be some distance away from the bottoming of core earnings, the bank’s long-term prospects remain intact.
In conclusion, HDFC Bank’s ongoing realignment is a necessary but challenging process. The bank is wisely prioritizing liquidity and risk management over aggressive growth, positioning itself for long-term resilience.
However, investors should be prepared for a prolonged period of subdued earnings and possible time correction in the stock as the bank navigates this complex transition. For those with a long-term horizon, HDFC Bank remains a solid bet, but patience will be key.