โPoor Mexico, God is so far and the United States is so closeโ, said Porfirio Diaz, a 19th Century student priest turned statesman on the peril of an enormously powerful neighbour. Circa 2025, this must be resonating in the minds of the political leadership of both Mexico and Canada.
Trumpโs decision to impose a 25% tariff on the two North American neighbours signals not just a break from the past, but the dawn of a new transactional politics where all established pities are yanked out of the window. It is the biggest setback to โWorld is Flatโ globalization and rebuke to โEnd of Historyโ liberal triumphalism, establishing the primacy of self-interest sovereign politics over free-wheeling economics and trade.
Economic warfare in the form of blockades and sanctions is not something new, but so far they have been directed at the โaxis of evilsโ or faraway countries that most canโt locate on a map.
Mahan and Monroeโs World
No one even in their wildest dreams would have thought that the hallowed NAFTA( North American Free Trade Agreement) would become as good as a piece of wastepaper. This is a new phase in the 21st-century imperium of Pax Americana when the energy and focus shift towards the American continental landmass instead of Cold War-era security commitments in Eurasia or the most valued trans-Atlantic partnerships.
Secretary of State Marco Rubioโs opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal leaves no doubt that the foreign policy of the Trump administration will be a turbocharged version of the Monroe Doctrine, outlined by President James Monroe in 1823, which views the entire western hemisphere as the uncontested American backyard.
Alfred Thayer Mahan, the doyen of American strategists and pioneer of naval studies, considered it the bedrock of American power, supporting the annexation of Hawaii, and control over the Panama Canal and the Caribbean. โIn the realm of diplomacy, this{ America First}means paying closer attention to our neighbourhoodโthe Western Hemisphereโ, writes Rubio. To walk the talk, he embarked on a visit to Central American nations including El Salvador and Panama.
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The Trump-Rubio foreign policy playbook is straight out of Monroe and Mahan, visualizing the Caribbean as a grand American lake, Canada as a subservient northern reservoir, and Greenland as the mega exclave to counter Russiaโs ambitious Northern Sea Route, which when fully navigable, would be shorter, cheaper, and more efficient than the Suez Canal.
The Danish territory also has untapped rare Earth mineral wealth. During World War 2, metal from Greenlandโs Ivittuut mine was used to manufacture allied weaponry. โThe Arctic has some of the most valuable shipping lanes in the world. As some of the ice is melting, itโs become more and more navigable. We need to be able to defend thatโ, said Rubio in a recent interview with Megyn Kelly.
Renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of Mexico follows the same pattern: re-asserting American primacy, dissuading countries in the vicinity from making deals with China, and attracting Chinese investments.
Great Re-Alignment
The โcease or desistโ diplomatic pressure tactics seem to be working well. Like Mexico, Canada too has agreed to stronger border policing and labelling fentanyl and other narco-traffickers as terrorists instead of delaying tariffs. Panama has decided not to renew its participation in Chinaโs flagship Belt and Road Initiative(BRI). In doing so, Panama has become the first Latin American country to dial down business ties with Beijing. More countries are likely to follow suit, coerced by America.
Throughout its history, America has veered between extreme isolationism and interventionism. These two poles have decided Washingtonโs engagement with the world since the Barbary Wars in North Africa in the 1800s. From the Civil War era, when Karl Marx supported Lincoln and the Unionist cause in the New York Herald Tribune, to the age of finks during the cultural cold war, Americaโs engagement with the outer world has varied along with the changing global dynamics.
Trump 2.0โs foreign policy aims a mix of the two, through a carrot-and-stick approach, best illustrated by his decision to postpone tariffs against Mexico by a month after Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to deploy 10,000 troops on the border.
The Other Means
Tariffs are an instrument in the art of the deal to gain the most optimal benefits. Thereโs certainly a method to all the rhetorical ballast. Protectionism and populism is a heady cocktail, and one that will increase disruption and inflation in the medium term, but whatโs at stake is the overhauling of the Pax Americana system to face an ever-assertive Beijing and gradually divesting from the post-war edifice built in Europe through NATO security and Marshall Plan prosperity.
European countries not contributing enough to NATO coffers to pay for their security, and as a result, American taxpayers footing the bill has become a key plank of political discourse among Republican voters. โThe world catches cold when Uncle Sam sneezesโ was a popular joke in the Information Technology industry during the early 2000s. The ripples of tariff wars will resound throughout the world in the same manner.
