What TV doesn't, print can't; we deliver.
What TV doesn't, print can't; we deliver.
Control of the Indian Ocean region is critical for China’s economy, and its strategic ambitions.
The way the BRICS group was expanded at last week’s summit has given India one more reason to invest heavily in a blue water navy which can dominate the Indian Ocean – something the Indian Navy has been pressing for at least a quarter-century, but India’s strategists have dragged their feet.
So far, India and South Africa were the only Indian Ocean littoral states in BRICS. If one takes a broad view of the Ocean, there are suddenly four more that adjoin the ocean: Iran, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. That takes this number straight up to six out of a total 11. It’s quite possible that Indonesia, Thailand, and Bangladesh, possibly Myanmar too, might join in the next expansion, or the following one.
Their putative admission would account for a large part of the eastern littoral. With overland Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) routes through Southeast Asia, China could use the grouping as an instrument to gain even greater control over the Indian Ocean.
READ MORE: Limited BRICS expansion suits India’s interests, for now
China is already giving extraordinary importance to building political, trade, educational, and infrastructural ties with African countries. In fact, South African President Ramaphosa invited President Xi Jinping for a half-day state visit just before the BRICS summit, and then convened a meeting of heads of African governments to meet Xi in tandem with the BRICS summit.
The Indian Ocean is the maritime route that links Africa to China. Indian strategists must stay a step ahead.
Focus on minerals and energy
The admission of Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, and Ethiopia indicates that members focused sharply on the oil and minerals in the Gulf and Red Sea areas. This expansion is a strong signal of waning Western domination of a region, the borders of which were drawn up on a map by colonial powers just a century ago.
The question is: how closely will these countries become part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and its Maritime Silk Route? China will surely see their inclusion as signalling not just a move away from US domination, but participation in China’s plans for the world.
READ MORE: Prigozhin’s death: Isolated event or part of bigger equation?
Closer economic cooperation is inevitable as infrastructure expands. China is a major importer of energy products from Iran, Russia, and the Arabian peninsula. And, like much of the rest of the world, they buy a slew of products from China.
Military and strategic domains
Many see BRICS as a counterweight to the West, mainly on the economic front. Some, particularly within China and Russia, go farther and project it as (at least potentially) an anti-West grouping, led by China (perhaps along with Russia).
One will have to see whether economic cooperation extends to military closeness with some of the entrants, as exists between China and Pakistan. India looks at BRICS as a primarily economic grouping, while Russia and China see it as a strategic one too. Russia and China may therefore try to steer it into decidedly anti-West stances. Iran’s inclusion will surely power that strategic view.
Control of the Indian Ocean region is crucial for China’s economy, and its strategic ambitions. It is already building a railway corridor from Iran, and more infrastructure projects from Pakistan’s coast. It remains to be seen whether Iran’s rapprochement with the Saudis will open a trade route from that peninsula across the Persian Gulf, and through Iran.
READ MORE: Dear Mehbooba Mufti, get enrolled in a science course
Over time, China may seek to increase its existing naval infrastructure in the Indian Ocean. It has already built major naval bases in the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Djibouti, and Pakistan. China has sold submarines to Pakistan, and is building more in Karachi harbour. In tandem with some of the other new and future members of BRICS, China will no doubt seek to further dominate the Indian Ocean.
This maritime build-up may be a less obvious threat than China’s armed deployments and infrastructure construction along India’s eastern and northern borders, but it is no less a lethal threat.
Minefield ahead for India
India will have to continue its tightrope walk as the China-Russia-Iran axis gains more strategic influence over Africa and Asia, with the areas on both sides of the Arabian peninsula emerging from this BRICS summit as an increasingly vital strategic power hub instead of a playground of big Western powers.
India wants to continue its more nuanced global stances, maintaining good relations (including some strategic ties) with Russia, the US, France, Japan, Australia, Iran, the UAE, and many other countries.
If it wants to be able to do this, it must invest heavily in dominating the ocean that is named for it, and over which it so obviously holds physical sway — if it decides to take advantage of its own geography. Without being belligerent, the Indian Navy must effectively patrol the entire Indian Ocean region.
