Muslims in India typically don’t vote for the BJP. So it’s not astonishing that the Muslim majority Kashmir valley voted for their own grand old regional party National Conference, in the 2024 assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir. The electioneering by all Kashmir-centric parties was focused on keeping the “Hindu” BJP out of Kashmir.
Also, over the past five years, the BJP made no significant political investment in the Kashmir Valley. It hardly cultivated any Kashmiri Muslim leaders with mass appeal, didn’t promote leadership among the Kashmiri Pandits who stayed in the valley or those displaced, and did not outline any roadmap for the return and rehabilitation of Kashmiri Hindus. Therefore, the results in the Kashmir Valley are unsurprising. On the other hand, the BJP has maintained its base in Jammu, where it has made political investments, particularly in the last three months.
Therefore, today’s results in J&K are not necessarily a verdict on the BJP. The biggest takeaway from the J&K assembly elections is that in a historic and unprecedented decision, post-abrogation of Article 370, the Central government opened up the political field in Kashmir to all shades of political opinion, to settle the political conflict once and for all. This election was almost like a referendum on the historical Kashmir conflict.
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As such, in these elections, Kashmir has rejected the pro-Pakistan Jamaat-e-Islami and all the pro-Azadi political parties led by former separatist leaders. Kashmir has rebuffed Iltija, the daughter of PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti, who thumps her chest for Gaza and Lebanon but not the ethnically cleansed Kashmiri Hindus. The valley has also rejected violence and militancy.
Instead, Kashmir has turned out in massive numbers to vote in favour of democracy post-Article 370. Additionally, people have voted for peace enjoyed by the people in Kashmir in the last five years. It’s important to acknowledge that the peaceful environment, now being handed over on a silver platter to the National Conference and Congress alliance, was created by Prime Minister Modi’s policies in the last five years.
The Indian democracy has in a way offered a time machine to the National Conference and the Congress party—they can redeem themselves by undoing the disaster both created in Jammu & Kashmir in 1950-53 (when the NC and Congress fell apart) and 1987-90 (when NC-Congress led rigging of elections triggered insurgency backed by Pakistan). The voters have spoken and given the two parties another chance to do a course correction.
It is now up to the NC and the Congress to decide whether they will build on the peace Kashmir has experienced over the past five years or squander it. They also need to prove their commitment to the Indian Parliament or Constitutional Republic, which passed the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A. Above all, the 2024 assembly poll results are a clear verdict against the naysayers who had claimed that Indian democracy would be under threat post-Article 370.